Vodafone investors hoping to make the most of now
Last Updated on Saturday, 29 August 2009 17:46 Written by <a href='/index.php?option=com_community&view=profile&userid=62&Itemid=110'>Administrator</a> Saturday, 29 August 2009 17:40
MOST readers will remember the heady days when Eircom was floated on the stock exchange and half a million people took a punt by buying shares in the former state-owned monopoly.
Research at the time showed that most of those "investing" in Eircom were buying shares for the first time. They were attracted by the promise of easy wealth and the knowledge that they were buying a stake in a highly visible company whose business model they understood.
Within two years, that had changed and most Eircom shareholders were left with a cheque and stock in Vodafone, a rapidly expanding mobile phone company with interests from Albania to Fiji.
Vodafone was a very different fish to Eircom but a remarkable four out of five Eircom shareholders have clung on to
their shares despite all sorts of difficulties ranging from dividends that were initially only paid in sterling to reams of company reports, hard-to-understand share splits and forms for proxy voting rights which regularly come in the post.
Inevitably, some of these accidental shareholders have lost their original share certificates while others have lost dividend cheques.
In the good times, many people were happy to forget about their failed investment, chalking it down to experience. Now, as Ireland languishes in an economic depression and unemployment hits double digits, anecdotal evidence suggests that some are wondering whether it is the time to finally sell off their Vodafone shares, take the money and run.
Any former Eircom shareholder who has held the Vodafone shares since 2001 will have to accept that they will make a loss if they sell now.
Shares in Vodafone were trading at around 190p in London in May 2001. Yesterday, the shares were trading at around 125p.
All anybody who owns Vodafone shares today needs to consider is whether they (the shares and dividends) show signs of future growth. One simple indicator is analyst recommendations.
Bloomberg, which tracks these recommendations, shows that 20 of the 38 analysts who follow Vodafone rate it a "buy" while a further four rate it a "hold" and just 11 rate it a "sell". Analysts tend to be optimistic and reluctant to downgrade but that's a reasonably positive ratio of buy and hold to sell ratings.
The analysts who favour hanging on to Vodafone shares argue that chief executive Vittorio Colao, who took charge a year ago, is doing a good job of squeezing costs. Mr Colao has reversed the previous policy of expensive expansion and is instead pushing his managers to squeeze more profit from existing operations. These measures are offsetting the slide in spending on telecommunications which is hurting mobile phone companies everywhere.
"Investors are clearly relieved that Vodafone is able to squeeze out more cash from existing assets even in this very difficult economic environment," said Will Draper, an analyst at Execution Ltd in London after Vodafone said two weeks ago that first-quarter sales climbed 9.3pc.
"The cash flow is much better than expected thanks to Colao's aggressive cost cuts and strong demand for the company's internet services."
Cautious
Another reassuring aspect to Vodafone for cautious investors is the sheer size of the company. Vodafone has a market capitalisation of about £62.9bn, or more than twice the entire Irish stock exchange.
While the company is loaded with debt, there can be something oddly reassuring about holding shares in a giant when so many companies are going into liquidation. The company's dividend is also looking good at around 6pc -- rather more than you would get in a bank while the 11pc rise of sterling against the euro this year will flatter profits further.
Still, even giants fail and some influential analysts worry that Vodafone is losing market share. Here in Ireland, O2 said this week that it's now the largest bill-pay mobile phone company in the country, the first time it pipped Vodafone to the top position. That pattern is being repeated elsewhere and many worry it's a trend that is going to continue.
Last month, even Vodafone's own stockbroker, UBS, advised clients to sell the shares in the short term. It warned that "deteriorating fundamentals and earnings momentum could result in Vodafone being the classic value trap". A value trap is a share whose price has fallen sharply and now looks like good value. Think Anglo Irish this time last year.
"Vodafone is losing share in three of its four main European markets, and we regard this as unsustainable in the medium term. Stemming this share loss could necessitate price cuts, or increased commercial costs, potentially thwarting management attempts to attack the overall cost base," warned UBS.
As always, there are reasons to sell and reasons to hold. What is not in doubt is that Vodafone, the most commonly held share in Ireland, has failed to benefit from the recent jump in share prices around the globe.
The shares are down 14pc so far this year while the FTSE 100 has gained 5.7pc. Even if now is a not a good time to sell, there will always be people who need the money.
Anybody wishing to make the most of now, in Vodafone's own words, should ring Computershare in Dublin on 0818 300 999. It is essential to have a number identifying your shareholding when you make the call, so have some piece of correspondence from Vodafone with you when ringing. It is also worth remembering that there is some paperwork connected to selling shares for tax reasons that can be complicated. Computershare or a local broker will be able to help.
Another option worth considering if this all seems too complicated is to give the shares to charity. The company, to their credit, supports ShareGift which allows shareholders with a small number of shares which might be considered uneconomic to sell to donate them to charity. Donated shares are aggregated and sold by ShareGift with the proceeds being passed on to UK charities. Call 0044 870 702 0198.
Charitable donations were the last thing on most people's minds when they piled into Eircom as part of the 1999 flotation but it might be the easiest way to put the whole sorry episode behind you.



